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February 2016 Election Day Analysis (February 2016)

Tuesday, February 23, 2016

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SAN DIEGO - The National University System Institute for Policy Research (NUSIPR) is projecting more than half of registered Carlsbad voters will be casting ballots on Measure A. Using election data from the Registrar of Voters and Political Data Inc. voter software, NUSIPR evaluated the early ballots received as of this morning for the February 23rd special election.

Overall, we found that:
• Voter turnout will be high. Based on the early returns thus far, NUSIPR projects that more than half (53-56%) of all Carlsbad voters will cast a ballot on Measure A.
• Older voters lead the absentee ballot count. Seniors 65 years of age or older comprise 4 out of 10 early ballots cast, a trend that is likely to continue in Election Day voting.
• Voter turnout is highest in neighborhoods surrounding Agua Hedionda Lagoon. From prior election results, we can conclude that most of these ballots are opposed to Measure A.
• More than 9,000 ballots will be cast today (Election Day). Approximately 28% of ballots will be cast at polling locations on Election Day, and thousands of completed absentee ballots are expected to be turned in at these locations as well.

“It’s unknown whether Measure A will be approved or rejected by Carlsbad voters, but the favorable conditions that have supported passage of prior development projects haven’t materialized this election cycle,” remarked NUSIPR Senior Policy Analyst Vince Vasquez, author of the study and Carlsbad resident. “That’s not to say Measure A couldn’t pass – but its passage would be a different type of campaign victory than what we’ve seen in prior elections.”

About the National University System Institute for Policy Research
The National University System Institute for Policy Research (NUSIPR) is a non-partisan, non-profit organization that formulates and promotes high quality economic policy, and public opinion research so as to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of local governments in San Diego County and to improve the quality of life enjoyed by the region’s residents.