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June 2014 Election Analysis (June 2014)

Monday, June 2, 2014

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Report: Voter Turnout in June Election Will Reach Record Lows
Voter Fatigue, Low Profile Races Responsible

SAN DIEGO - On the eve of Election Day, the National University System Institute for Policy Research (NUSIPR) projects unusually low voter turnout in San Diego County. Using election data from the Registrar of Voters, NUSIPR evaluated the absentee ballots received for the June 3rd gubernatorial primary election.

Overall, we found that:

• Voter turnout will reach a historic low. Absentee ballot returns have been very slow this election. Due to local voter fatigue and low-profile contests, NUSIPR projects total voter turnout to be in the range of 18-23%.
• Citywide, Democratic voters lead the absentee ballot count. While Republican ballots have a higher return rate, more Democratic ballots have been cast than GOP ballots.
• The Republican Party leads the early ballot count in two key City Council races. Higher GOP voter turnout in Districts 2 & 6 buoys the electoral prospects of San Diego City Councilwoman Lorie Zapf in District 2 and candidate Chris Cate in District 6.
• More than 30,000 ballots will be cast on Election Day. Approximately 20-30% of ballots will be cast at polling locations on Election Day. Combined with absentee ballots turned in to polling locations on Tuesday, the Election Day ballot tally will be more than 30,000.

“Voter fatigue is negatively impacting election turnout in San Diego,” remarked Vince Vasquez, author of the report. “We anticipate campaigns will be working up to the last hour, making phone calls and arrangements to get identified supporters to turn out to the polls and cast their ballots.”