Thursday, February 6, 2014
SAN DIEGO - With eight days to go before Election Day, Councilmember Kevin Faulconer is projected to have the early lead in the City of San Diego mayoral election. That is the conclusion of a new report released today by the National University System Institute for Policy Research (NUSIPR), a regional economic think tank. Using election data from the Registrar of Voters and GIS mapping software, NUSIPR evaluated votes cast in the November 2013 mayoral election, as well as early returns for the February 11th runoff election.
Overall, we found that:
• The Interstate 8 was a clear dividing line for votes cast in the November mayoral election. Faulconer won mostly coastal and suburban neighborhoods north of Interstate 8, while Alvarez won mostly urban and Latino neighborhoods south of Interstate 8.
• Voter turnout will be higher for the February 2014 election than the November 2013 election. Comparing the same point in time in early voting for the November 19th election, turnout is up by 28,500 votes. This suggests the February 11th election will have a higher overall turnout rate.
• Early voters favor Faulconer over Alvarez. Republican absentee ballots are being cast at a significantly higher rate than Democratic ballots. Turnout in voter precincts that favored Faulconer in last year’s election is also higher than turnout in pro-Alvarez precincts.
• Election Day votes are instrumental for an Alvarez victory. Alvarez edged out former Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher’s early absentee lead with poll voters to make the runoff election. He will need to generate a higher partisan turnout on Election Day in order to win.
“For now, Faulconer is leading early voting in the mayoral election,” remarked Vince Vasquez, author of the report. “Still, there are thousands more votes to be cast, and nearly 30% of all ballots are expected to be cast on Election Day. Regardless of the winner, we anticipate a close election.”