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News and Notes: Projecting the June 2016 California Republican Presidential Primary Election (April 2016)

Thursday, April 28, 2016

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SAN DIEGO – Businessman Donald Trump is likely to win the California Republican primary election on June 6th. That is the findings of a new report by the National University System Institute for Policy Research (NUSIPR), a regional economic think tank.

Using demographic data from the United States Census Bureau, statistical techniques, and electoral results from four recent state elections, NUSIPR developed a statistical model to project the California vote by Congressional District. Overall, they found:

·         Trump is heavily favored to win outright in 24 out of 53 (45%) California Congressional Districts.

·         Trump has a commanding lead in 17 (32%) additional Districts.

·         Electoral support for Trump is strongest in the Inland Empire, northern Los Angeles County, and the southern outlying counties of the San Francisco Bay Area. His weakest electoral support is concentrated along the Central Coast, the Central Valley, and far northern California counties.

·         Trump’s upside in California would net him over 133 delegates, likely putting him at or near the number of delegates needed to secure the Republican nomination.

“Based on our analysis, we project that Trump will win at least 133 out of the 172 delegates at play in California,” remarked Vince Vasquez, NUSIPR Senior Policy Analyst and author of the report. “Pollsters have identified a coalescing of Republican vote behind Trump over the past two weeks, suggesting a greater acceptance of Trump as the party nominee. Prior exit polls have also shown that Trump voters don’t feel represented or heard in the political process. That would certainly be true in California; Republicans have suffered a string of losses in statewide races over the past 18 years. There are currently no Republicans holding statewide elected office, and Republicans are in the minority in the State Assembly and Senate.”