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U-T EconoMeter: Will home prices rise in 2012?

Panel forecast overestimated 2011 increase by $21,000


Sunday, January 8, 2012

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Kelly Cunningham, National University System
Answer: NO
2011 prediction, $345,000; 2012 prediction, $310,000.
As always there will be exceptions in some markets, but the overall median price of homes in San Diego will not appreciably rise during 2012. The median is more reflective of middle and lower housing prices. Given San Diego’s economic and employment dynamics, as middle-wage jobs continue to be squeezed, and only lower skilled/lower-compensated jobs, as well as some higher skilled/higher-paid jobs on the other end of the spectrum, are added, the median price of housing will not increase. Onerous qualifying standards for home mortgages and release of foreclosures into the marketplace also limit prices.