EconoMeterists take pulse of economy at midyear
Panel looks for good and bad signs of future -- not all is bleak
Roger Showley, U-T SAN DIEGO
Friday, July 13, 2012
Kelly Cunningham, National University System
The only bright spot may be the economy not getting worse so far. Healthy recovery remains elusive, with only stagnant gains being recorded. The nation’s trajectory toward bankruptcy remains the bigger fear.
Meanwhile, a "perfect storm" for the global economy unfolds as growth in the U.S. stalls; debt troubles across Europe spread; emerging markets -- including China, in particular -- slow down; and further military conflicts arise in the Middle East.
I give the state and local economy a “4” so far in 2012. San Diego actually has fewer jobs as of May 2012 than at the beginning of the year, adjusted for seasonal variations. Job growth picked up slightly the past two months, while year-over-year gains show only 12,400 jobs. At this pace, it will take 6.5 more years to fully recover pre-Great Recession job levels. This does not include growth needed for an expanding population.