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Is the U.S. headed for a recession this year?

Roger Showley, SAN DIEGO UNION-TRIBUNE

Friday, February 19, 2016

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Kelly Cunningham, National University System
A: NO

Not necessarily this year, but strong likelihood exists with growth so weak any number of events could tip the economy into negative terrain. Recent factory output declines, rising inventory stockpiles, shrinking corporate profits and turbulent stock market are all precursors of recession. Moderate job gains might seem to suggest healthier economic activity, but quality of jobs, many of which are part-time and not well paying, are a lagging indicator of where the economy is headed.